Chance by design: devising an introductory probability module for implementation at scale in English early-secondary education

This paper reports the design of an introductory probability module intended for implementation at scale within the English educational system. It forms part of the epiSTEMe programme of redesign research aimed at improving the teaching and learning of mathematics and science at early-secondary level. The approach taken by the module is informed by the research literatures on effective teaching (with a particular emphasis on blending teaching components and exploiting dialogic discussion) and probabilistic thinking (with a particular emphasis on triangulating epistemic approaches and deconstructing fallacious reasoning). Recognising that scaleable innovation must take account of the current state and established norms of the educational system, module development was informed by such considerations. Advice and feedback from classroom teachers, as well as observation and recording of their lesson implementations, provided a basis for assessing the viability of proposed features of the module, and the adaptation required of teachers, so that guidance materials and professional development could be framed appropriately.